A durable centre
Since the opening session of the 10th Parliament in July 2024, the three centrist groups — EPP, S&D, and Renew Europe — have maintained a working majority on 73% of roll-call votes. That figure is higher than the comparable period in the 9th Parliament (68%), suggesting that the post-election arithmetic has, counter-intuitively, produced more rather than less predictability.
The durability of this coalition is particularly striking given the rightward shift in the EP's composition. The ECR group, now the third-largest, has struggled to break into the winning coalition except on migration and border files — where it has managed to peel off votes from the EPP right flank.
Where the coalition fractures
Climate legislation is the clearest fault line. On the Nature Restoration Law implementation votes, the EPP defection rate rose to 22% — the highest since the 2019 ETS reform. S&D and Greens held firm, but the loss of EPP votes required reaching across to ECR on procedural matters, producing some of the strangest voting patterns of the term.
Migration files show the mirror image: here the centre-left defects. S&D loyalty drops to 81% on asylum procedure votes, with a bloc of Italian, Greek, and Bulgarian MEPs voting with ECR and ID on detention period extensions.
Methodology note
We define a "grand coalition vote" as any roll-call where EPP, S&D, and Renew all had ≥60% of their members vote on the same side. The 12,043 votes analysed span July 2024 through March 2026, excluding procedural motions and quorum checks.