Steel: the clearest signal
Steel is the sector where CBAM's price signal is sharpest. Imports from Turkey — the EU's largest steel supplier — have risen 18% in unit value terms over the 12 months since full CBAM application. Ukrainian producers, benefiting from a temporary derogation under the Association Agreement, have increased market share by 4 percentage points as a result.
Cement and fertilisers: second-order effects
Cement shows a more complex pattern. The effective CBAM charge on imports from Morocco and Egypt — two significant sources — has triggered some import substitution, but EU domestic capacity constraints have limited the supply response. The result is a margin squeeze on construction firms rather than a shift to domestic supply.
Fertiliser volumes are the most telling indicator. A 3.1% decline in import volume from Russian and Belarusian producers — who face both CBAM and sanctions — has pushed up input costs for EU farmers at a time when farm income is already under pressure from the CAP reform transition.